Scenario Modeling

Cascade Scenarios

Geopolitical disruption scenarios and their projected impact on the West African trade network.

Nigeria exits ECOWAS

exit
Trigger
Lagos
Severity71.8%
Trade Volume Affected
12.3K
New Components
4
Isolated Cities
3
Trade Disrupted
9
Directly Affected Cities
AbujaIbadanKadunaKanoLagosPort HarcourtWarri
Isolated Cities
KaolackSan-PedroTakoradi
Trade Disrupted Cities
AbidjanAccraCasablancaCotonouDakarDoualaNiameyTemaZinder

Mali exits ECOWAS

exit
Trigger
Bamako
Severity22.4%
Trade Volume Affected
1.5K
New Components
6
Isolated Cities
5
Trade Disrupted
3
Directly Affected Cities
BamakoMoptiSikasso
Isolated Cities
KadunaKaolackSan-PedroTakoradiWarri
Trade Disrupted Cities
AbidjanConakryDakar

Alliance of Sahel States multi-exit

exit
Trigger
Bamako
Severity21.8%
Trade Volume Affected
4.3K
New Components
6
Isolated Cities
5
Trade Disrupted
0
Directly Affected Cities
AgadezBamakoBobo-DioulassoMaradiMoptiNiameyOuagadougouSikassoZinder
Isolated Cities
KadunaKaolackSan-PedroTakoradiWarri

Guinea exits ECOWAS

exit
Trigger
Conakry
Severity17.5%
Trade Volume Affected
500
New Components
6
Isolated Cities
5
Trade Disrupted
3
Directly Affected Cities
ConakryKankan
Isolated Cities
KadunaKaolackSan-PedroTakoradiWarri
Trade Disrupted Cities
AbidjanBamakoFreetown